How Will Vietnam Benefit from Global Economic Policies in 2025?
In 2025, the global economy is projected to recover, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting a GDP growth rate of 3.1%—a slight increase from 3.0% in 2024. However, this recovery remains uneven across regions, influenced by key factors such as China’s economic slowdown, new U.S. tariff policies, and prolonged economic uncertainties in the European Union (EU). These global shifts present both opportunities and challenges for economies like Vietnam.
U.S. Tariff Adjustments: What Opportunities for Vietnam?
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the U.S. continues to enforce high tariffs, ranging between 25% and 60% on Chinese imports. This trade protectionism benefits Vietnam, positioning it as a key trade partner for the U.S.
According to FPT Securities (FPTS), Vietnamese exports face 15-50 percentage points lower tariffs than Chinese goods, particularly in industrial supplies and manufactured products.
In 2024, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. reached $405.5 billion, a 14.3% increase from the previous year. This double-digit growth is expected to continue in 2025, led by key sectors such as textiles, electronics, and processed wood products. Notably, industrial supplies—which currently account for 37% of Vietnam’s total U.S. exports—are projected to grow by 40% annually, according to FPTS.
While Vietnam benefits from U.S. tariff advantages, it must navigate the risk of origin fraud investigations. If Chinese goods are rerouted through Vietnam to bypass U.S. tariffs, the country could face additional trade restrictions. A similar situation arose in 2020 when Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached $80 billion, leading to greater scrutiny from U.S. trade authorities.
China’s Economic Stimulus: How Will Vietnam Gain?
China, Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner, is implementing economic stimulus measures to boost domestic growth and address structural challenges. A major fiscal stimulus package worth 10 trillion yuan (approximately $1.4 trillion), equivalent to 8% of China’s GDP, is being rolled out to increase infrastructure investment, support SMEs, and raise minimum wages to drive domestic consumption.
These stimulus policies create new opportunities for Vietnamese exports, particularly in agriculture and processed food. In 2024, China accounted for 40% of Vietnam’s total rice exports, valued at $4 billion. The seafood, fruit (dragon fruit, mango, durian), and coffee sectors are also expected to benefit in 2025, as China ramps up imports to stabilize domestic supply chains.
Beyond trade, Vietnam continues to attract strong foreign direct investment (FDI) from China as part of the global supply chain shift. In 2023, Chinese FDI into Vietnam reached $4.5 billion, the highest level since 2019, with capital flowing into electronics, renewable energy, and manufacturing. Major Chinese corporations, including Foxconn and Trina Solar, have launched large-scale projects, boosting Vietnam’s industrial production capacity.
In 2024, China remains one of Vietnam’s top foreign investors, accounting for 13% of total registered FDI. By September 2024, Chinese FDI into Vietnam had reached $3.2 billion, with significant investments in high-value sectors such as electronic components, medical devices, and high-tech manufacturing.
FPTS predicts Chinese FDI in Vietnam will continue to rise in 2025, as U.S.-China trade tensions push Chinese firms to relocate production to avoid tariff barriers. According to FPTS, Chinese companies are investing in Vietnam to leverage its competitive labor costs, favorable business climate, and government incentives.
EU Economic Challenges and Vietnam’s Export Potential
The European Union (EU) faces significant economic headwinds, including:
- Energy supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Political instability in several member states
- A prolonged economic slowdown, with 2024 GDP growth at just 0.8%—lower than earlier projections
However, the EU’s monetary policies may provide growth opportunities. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to lower deposit interest rates to 2% by late 2025 from 3.25% in 2024, aiming to stimulate investment and consumption. With inflation under control at around 2%, consumer confidence in Europe is showing signs of recovery.
A rebounding EU economy could boost demand for Vietnamese exports, particularly in:
- Textiles and garments
- Wood processing
- Electronic products
In 2024, Vietnam’s exports to the EU totaled $46.5 billion, accounting for 13% of total exports. In 2025, this figure is projected to grow by 12.5%, supported by free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the EVFTA, which grants Vietnam preferential tariff rates.
However, Vietnamese exporters must overcome EU’s stringent trade regulations, including:
- Strict environmental and carbon emission standards
- Tougher quality control measures
Failure to comply with these new EU regulations could lead to higher production costs and reduced market competitiveness.
Other Key Markets: Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN
Besides the U.S., China, and the EU, other major trade partners—such as Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN—also contribute significantly to Vietnam’s export growth.
- Japan is rolling out a ¥39 trillion ($260 billion) stimulus package, equivalent to 6% of its GDP, to boost domestic demand, benefiting Vietnamese exports such as food and textiles.
- South Korea and Singapore remain major investors in Vietnam, accounting for 10% and 13% of total FDI in 2024, respectively.
Vietnam’s Economic Outlook for 2025
As 2025 approaches, Vietnam stands at a pivotal moment, poised to capitalize on global economic shifts. The country must:
- Strategically navigate trade policies, particularly with the U.S. and EU
- Leverage China’s economic stimulus to expand agricultural and industrial exports
- Attract more high-value FDI, particularly in electronics and renewable energy
With strong economic policies and a flexible trade strategy, Vietnam is well-positioned to strengthen its global trade presence and drive sustainable domestic growth in 2025 and beyond.